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# MAT 540 Midterm (100 Solution) 40 Questions

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**Question 11. Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.AnswerTrueFalseQuestion 22. An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.AnswerTrueFalseQuestion 33. A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.AnswerTrueFalseQuestion 44. A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.AnswerTruefalse5. Question 5Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.AnswerTrueFalseQuestion 6Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.AnswerTrueFalseQuestion 7Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.AnswerTruefalseQuestion 8Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.AnswerTruefalseQuestion 9Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?Answer5.8 minutes6.4 minutes9.2 minutes3.5 minutesQuestion 10__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.AnswerStandard deviationRangeThe z-score (the standard score)All of the aboveQuestion 11The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.Answerexpected valueexpected opportunity lossexpected value of perfect informationnone of the aboveQuestion 12Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determineAnswerthe coefficient of variationdata setsrandom number rangesall of the aboveQuestion 13Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below. The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?Answer.10.25.35.71Question 14Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.Answerphysical / physicalphysical / mathematicalmathematical / physical.mathematical / mathematicalQuestion 15Consider the following frequency of demand:If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would beAnswer1234_________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.AnswerQualitative methodsRegressionTime seriesQuantitative methodsQuestion 17Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.Answer273277267.8286.2Question 18Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?Answer.010.100.500.90Question 19__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.AnswerForecast mistakeForecast errorMADForecast accuracyQuestion 20In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.Answer-101-1 or 1Question 21Consider the following demand and forecastIf MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?Answer212223None of the aboveQuestion 22__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demandCumulative errorMADMAPDAverage errorQuestion 23Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variabledependent, dependentindependent, dependentdependent, independentindependent, independentQuestion 24Consider the following graph of salesWhich of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?AnswerTrend onlyTrend plus seasonalCyclical onlyNone of the aboveQuestion 25A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimalAnswerQuestion 26A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.AnswerQuestion 27online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.AnswerQuestion 28A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimalAnswerQuestion 29The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000). If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will he hire?AnswerQuestion 30An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.Economic ConditionPoor Average Good ExcellentInvestment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4)A 50 75 20 30B 80 15 40 50C -100 300 -50 10D 25 25 25 25If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?AnswerQuestion 31Given the following random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40, 86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand.AnswerQuestion 32Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winningsWhat is the coefficient of determination? Note: please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point.AnswerQuestion 33This is the data from the last 4 weeks:Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.AnswerQuestion 34The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.AnswerQuestion 35Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.AnswerQuestion 36The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.answerQuestion 37**

## [Solved] MAT 540 Midterm (100 Solution) 40 Questions

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Question 1

1. Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

Answer

True

False

Question 2

2. An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.

Answer

True

False

Question 3

3. A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.

Answer

True

False

Question 4

4. A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

Answer

True

false

5. Question 5

Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.

Answer

True

False

Question 6

Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.

Answer

True

False

Question 7

Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.

Answer

True

false

Question 8

Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

Answer

True

false

Question 9

Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?

Answer

5.8 minutes

6.4 minutes

9.2 minutes

3.5 minutes

Question 10

__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.

Answer

Standard deviation

Range

The z-score (the standard score)

All of the above

Question 11

The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.

Answer

expected value

expected opportunity loss

expected value o...