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Need Help ASAP - STATS

  • From Mathematics, Data Analysis
  • Due on 02 May, 2021 02:40:43
  • Asked On 02 May, 2021 11:41:16
  • Due date has already passed, but you can still post solutions.
Question posted by
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request
  • Submit one Excel file with your answers for the following questions ((a)-(b)).
  • In your Excel file create two worksheets:
    • P6 Regression: your regression report for part (a)
    • Answers: all answers for part (a) - (b)

Smith Fules sells heating oil to residential customers and would like to build a model to predict its customer’s oil consumption.

Oil customers are exposed to the risk of running out of fuel. Home heating oil suppliers therefore have to guarantee that the customer’s oil tank will not be allowed to run dry. Home heating oil industry try uses the concept of a degree-day, equal to the difference between the average daily temperature and 68 degree Fahrenheit. So if the average temperature on a given day is 50, the degree-days for that day will be 18. If the degree-day calculation results in a negative number, the degree-day number is recorded as 0.

 

By keeping track of the number of degree-days since the customer’s last oil fill, knowing the size of the customer’s oil tank, and estimating the customer’s oil consumptions as a function of the number of degree-days, the oil supplier can estimate when the customer is getting low on fuel and then resupply the customer. However, Smith has more than 2000 customers and computational burden of keeping track of all of these customers is enormous.

Smith wants to develop a consumption estimation model that is practical and reliable. To estimate customer oil use the following data are available:

  • The number of degree-days since the last oil fill and the consumption amounts for 40 customers.
  • The number of people residing in the home of each of the 40 customers.
  • An assessment of the home type of each of the 40 customers.

Customer    Oil Usage    Degree Days    Home Factor    Number People
1    381    888    3    3
2    171    176    5    7
3    644    1073    5    4
4    19    126    2    4
5    394    645    5    5
6    153    326    4    6
7    7    
1229    1    3
8    319    1218    2    4
9    40    570    2    1
10    121    334    1    7
11    243    738    3    3
12    200    1464    1    5
13    402    880    4    5
14    118    1134    1    5
15    319    1019    3    4
16    185    460    2    3
17    209    257    5    4
18    467    779    5    4
19    50    128    2    4
20    153    371    2    5
21    94    178    3    6
22    574    933    5    3
23    191    295    3    5
24    679    1358    4    5
25    305    626    4    5
26    85    237    2    7
27    87    813    1    6
28    170    385    3    5
29    92    678    1    4
30    35    54    2    3
31    60    314    1    5
32    507    898    4    3
33    148    966    1    6
34    83    84    5    3
35    318    919    3    4
36    85    379    1    4
37    245    512    3    4
38    56    355    2    3
39    303    759    3    3
40    10    777    1    4
 

(a) Use regression to see whether a statistically reliable oil consumption model can be estimated from the data. You should strive a model that is simple, and that does not violate any of the basic assumptions of the multiple regression such as multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity, but nevertheless has good predictive power.

Display the regression output as 'P6 Regression' in your Excel file.
Explain clearly if you use any transformations/interactions.
Explain why your model is valid. Reference any tables/figures that you need to make your point.
 

(b) Using the oil usage data, make one figure that shows as much of the insight from your regression in part a) as possible using Tableau. Copy and paste your figure with summary and caption. Try to represent visually the intuition that your regression gives you in the figure.

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[Solved] your regression report

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  • Submitted On 02 May, 2021 02:05:59
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Heating Oil at Dupree Customer No Oil Usage Degree Days Home Factor Number People Home_Factor_1 Home_Factor_2 Home_Factor_3 Home_Factor_4 Home_Factor_5 Log(Oil_Usage) 1 381 888 3 3 0 0 1 0 0 5.942799375 2 171 176 5 7 0 0 0 0 1 5.141663557 3 644 1073 5 4 0 0 0 0 1 6.467698726 4 19 126 2 4 0 1 0 0 0 2.944438979 5 394 645 5 5 0 0 0 0 1 5.976350909 6 153 326 4 6 0 0 0 1 0 5.030437921 7 7 1229 1...
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